There are many writers who claim to have a solid idea of what the world will look like in the near (and sometimes far) future. The standard methodology that “experts” tend to use is to consider the past and try to project that into the future. I will not go into the fact that this is actually a logical fallacy (I know this only because I had an artificial disc put in my neck, and all studies in the past 10 years have shown it to be superior in every way to the older alternative surgery, cervical fusion, but just because all of these factors demonstrate it to be superior now, this doesn’t mean that this trend will continue further into the future) but instead I will just try to get peoples’ opinions about which country or countries will be the superpower or superpowers twenty years later.

There are my top three choices. I will put some pluses and minuses that I notice for each country’s present conditions.

America – Pluses

– massive GDP

– a draw for talent from around the world due to its liberal economics and civil liberties

– high pay for technical and specialized work

– English as a global language

– soft power (culture) is unparalleled

– a large population with a high GDP per capita (i.e., mass consumption)

– technology leader in the world

– a powerful military.

America – Minuses

– economy seems to be slowing and maybe contracting

– military power declining

– continuous contention with Islam and Islamic terrorism particularly

China – Pluses

– largest population

– tech-savvy population

– nimble command economy (has shown it will do things that harm its citizens for the advancement of the country)

– not afraid to use espionage to acquire new technologies

– growing military

– very large economy

– technology quickly improving

– mass mobilization of citizens for civil or military projects

China — minuses

– unstable politically, especially on its peripheries

– slowing economy dependent on US imports

– disparity in GDP per capita

– little soft power on a global scale

– tensions with Japan and South-east Asian countries

– censorship and mistreatment of its citizens discourages immigration from citizens from developed countries

– lacks oil resources

Russia – Pluses

– largest landmass

– large population

– massive untapped resources

– some parts of the tech industry are advanced

– nimble command economy

– large economy not dependent on US imports

Russia – Minuses

– growing dissatisfaction with government

– Islamic terrorism

– insurrections at peripheries

– poor image worldwide

– large disparity in GDP per capita

In twenty years time, I’d bank on America still being the global superpower, but with a much diminished role on the global scale. My major reason for this is the instability of the hegemonic contenders.

What do you think?

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